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1:25 pm CST - May 16, 2011
Posted under The Scoop
Huckabee Is Out. The Down and Dirty on Who It Helps and Hurts.
The down and dirty analysis of who it helps:
Tim Pawlenty. He becomes the evangelical governor in the race.
Herman Cain. He remains the Huckabee of 2012.
Sarah Palin. She and Huckabee would largely be fighting for the same crowd.
Who it hurts:
All of us. Some of you won’t agree, but I think Huckabee would force the other candidates to bring their A game on message and rhetoric. Just for that alone, I wanted him in the race.
What it means:
Mitt Romney is the front runner and the field is wide open to be the anti-Mitt. If Daniels gets in,and it is increasingly likely, he will be the odds on favorite to be the anti-Mitt. Otherwise it will probably be Pawlenty. And even with Daniels in, Pawlenty’s access to the evangelical community will make him a force to be reckoned with. Those two will fight it out to be the anti-Mitt.
Original post below the fold.
It looks like I and many others who have been following this are very wrong and that Mike Huckabee is getting into the race.
Maybe not, but he sent out an email to his inner circle that reads like he is getting in. This will come as a surprise to many people. Frankly, at this point, I think it is awesome that Huck has been able to leave us all guessing.
The Wall Street Journal noted yesterday that Ed Rollins had been laying the ground work for 2012 on Huckabee’s behalf, but then hadn’t heard anything. Rollins speculated that Huckabee was out.
Ed Stelzer, a Republican from Georgia who spearheaded Huck’s Army in Georgia, also said yesterday Huckabee wasn’t running and added that Huck’s Iowa team had all gone elsewhere.
Wesley Donahue reported a few weeks ago in South Carolina that several of Huck’s guys there had been told they were free to go. Wes was widely attacked for being a Romney guy, but I and several others had heard this independent of Huck.
If he does get in, this is really a masterful job at throwing everyone off.
Yesterday, I posted my views on the horse race for 2012. If Mike Huckabee does decide to tell the world tonight that he is running, here’s how I think it impacts the race.
Herman Cain gets impacted in buzz. A lot of buzz has been going to Herman because, as I and others have said repeated, he stands out as the Huckabee of 2012. With Huckabee in the race, evangelicals in Iowa who want an outsider gravitate back to Huck.
Pawlenty is hurt by Huckabee entering. He’d be the “experience” candidate who also connects to evangelicals. Huckabee fills that void and it will leave Pawlenty scrambling.
Sarah Palin will be able to hold her on, but the establishment GOP that fears her will make peace with Huckabee quickly — very quickly. I think if Huckabee gets in there is no way Palin, should she get in, gets the nomination. In fact, I think Palin and Huckabee both in the race neutralizes them both.
Should Mike Huckabee get in, he will be the front runner. And to be honest, I hope he gets in. I have said for a few months now that while I disagree with Huckabee on much of his economic/fiscal record, he speaks in a way that resonates with the hearts of Americans. He would force every other candidate to rise to the occasion and bring their A game.
For that, we can all be grateful. But I’m not sure i want him as the nominee.
In any event, we’ll find out tonight.
11 Comments
PJ
2:43 pm CST
May 16, 2011
Why is there no mention of Ron Paul? Are you so arrogant and willfully ignorant of the throngs of Ron Paul supporters that are taking to the streets?
The gap between the media and the people grows…
Hank
3:08 pm CST
May 16, 2011
Ron Paul is not mentioned because he is a joke candidate. Please lets stick to someone who can actually win the Election.
Kevin Delosreyes
4:01 pm CST
May 16, 2011
Here is the real question, Why does Hank think that a guy, who follows the constitution, most honest candidate and consistent, and the most conservative, is a joke?
POSSIBLE ANSWERS: A. FOX made him that way. B. He depends on government handouts OR C. He’s messed up in the head.
Paul
7:09 pm CST
May 16, 2011
Ron Paul “should” have been mentioned since he’s currently the only hope for our country. Libertarianism is the new face of the Republican Party. Get out of the way traditionalists! Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin… Give me a break guys. Get rid of the religious rhetoric and big government policies! We want Liberty!
CWJensen
7:11 pm CST
May 16, 2011
Just what has Ron Paul ever accomplished?
CWJensen
7:13 pm CST
May 16, 2011
Paul just named WHY Ron Paul will never be president. LIBERTARIAN.
Bonhomme
8:25 pm CST
May 16, 2011
Please. How many of us want another term for the current president. That would be a term in which he would have no expectations of further elestions, in other words, nothing to lose. Do we want another four years in which he may have the opportunity to appoint one or two Supreme Court justices? We have to give up marginal candidates and work for one man who the whole country, including those marginally behind Obama will vote for. The Tea partiers, evangelicals, buisness, middle of the roaders and far right have to get firmly behind one candidate early. This is not a year that we can risk everything on an assemblage of light weights. Backing governors and preachers that no one knows won’t get the job done. Please thinkm of thye big picture. Can he or she get elected? Get over it now, or give up hope for the country.
Rabble Rouser
7:39 am CST
May 16, 2011
Erickson was wrong to exclude Paul in the conversation but there ain’t a snowball’s chance in hell of him winning the nomination. While I agree with many of the libertarian principles he espouses they will prove to be irrevelant.
First, his message is confusing to most Americans and he lacks sufficient charisma but the real problems are 1) his blind eye to open borders, 2) his blind eye to threats from Islam, 3) his isolationist stance and perhaps most importantly 4) the sanctimonious and antagonistic attitude of his base.
The Paulians will kick and scream, insisting he is the only champion of liberty, the only anti-war candidate and so on. I remember it all from the 2008 cycle…not looking forward to the next 9-12 months of that stuff.
garywfbg
9:57 am CST
May 16, 2011
I’m still trying to figure out how Pawlenty appeals to Evangelicals. I like Santorum for that. I really like someone that talks the talk and walks the walk and has sensible reasoning and stands on principle no matter the cost. Ron Paul is my Congressman and I like him there—-not as President.
David P
10:14 am CST
May 16, 2011
I was glad to see that Mike Huckabee decided not to run. I think Huckabee can be a bigger force for good by continuing his TV show. I mean it. I feel the same way about Ron Paul. Dr. Paul can be a bigger help as a Representative from Texas. We need his ideas and attitude in Congress. Whoever gets elected (hoping it will be the GOP candidate) will need strong and influential help in the public, in Congress and in the Senate.
I don’t know who I will support because all of the horses have not got up to the gate.
rabble rouser
12:40 pm CST
May 16, 2011
@gary – you’re spot on about Rick Santorum. Erickson is sounding like he has joined that corps of self-anointed elites who want to present us with our choices.
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