Texas Insider

3:37 pm CST - July 20, 2010

November 2010: Enthusiasm Matters, But Excitement … Not So Much

By Ed Kilgore, The Democratic Strategist

It’s very clear that the 2010 midterm elections will revolve around turnout patterns, not some big change of public opinion since 2008. Intensifying an already strong tendency in mid-term elections, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents at present are looking marginally more likely to vote than Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

Here’s how Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling expresses it:

There continues to be no doubt this fall’s election will have more to do with whether Democrats can turn out Obama voters than keep them in the fold.

Very few voters are shifting their allegiance from the 2008 election – 8% of Obama voters say they’ll vote Republican this time, but an almost equal 6% of McCain voters say they’ll vote Democratic this time.

When it comes to voters switching sides it’s basically a wash, but Republicans are doing well across the country due to Democratic disengagement.

So voter enthusiasm matters, particularly when it happens to coincide with the longstanding pattern in midterm elections of older, white voters turning out at significantly higher levels than young and minority voters, who were a big part of the Democratic base in 2008.

But how’s about all the talk about “excitement,” and the exceptional energy the Tea Party movement is said to have brought to the Republican Party?

Here’s Jensen again:

Among voters who are ‘very excited’ about voting this fall Republicans hold a 52-40 advantage. How much that matters is up for debate though.

Scott Brown led the Massachusetts Senate race 59-40 with ‘very excited’ voters but won by only 5. Chris Christie led the New Jersey Governor’s race 60-34 with ‘very excited’ voters but his final margin of victory was only 4 points.

As I’ve said before, unexcited voters count the same as excited ones and our polling so far this cycle has suggested the Democrats who answer our surveys vote, whether they’re excited about it or not.

So I’m not sure how much the wide GOP advantage with ‘very excited’ voters really matters.

So to sum it up, enthusiasm matters up to the point that it motivates someone to vote. Beyond that, a vote’s a vote, and you only get to vote once.

It’s a simple point, but one often lost on people in both parties who value “energy” and “excitement” a bit too much. Unless their mood is communicable, or translates into campaign activity of some sort, super-psyched voters who snake-dance to the polls as part of some “movement” have no more weight that those who hold their noses and vote unhappily.

That’s worth remembering next time you see one of those measurements of voter “excitement.”

5 Comments

CWJensen
8:11 pm CST
July 20, 2010

What do you suppose this guy is on?
I especially like his “So to sum it up, enthusiasm matters up to the point that it motivates someone to vote. Beyond that, a vote’s a vote, and you only get to vote once”
I assume that applies ONLY to Republicans as the DEMON RATS certainly do NOT follow those rules.

Christian Archer
8:54 am CST
July 20, 2010

Mr. Kilgore to make the following statement you are either dillusional (in strong denial) or trying to minimize and marginalize the true impact the Tea Party movement is having on changing this nation. “It’s very clear that the 2010 midterm elections will revolve around turnout patterns, not some big change of public opinion since 2008.” The public opinion has changed radically. When in our nation’s history have we seen people over 55 demonstrating in masse? They usually just stay in the comfort of their homes and then go to the voting booths. Mr. intellectual giant, read the Tea Party’s signs, I’m confident it will increase your I.Q. Maybe you’ll turn from your liberal ways and join the Tea Party people, should you allow your mind to become enlightened.

“Very few voters are shifting their allegiance from the 2008 election – 8% of Obama voters say they’ll vote Republican this time, but an almost equal 6% of McCain voters say they’ll vote Democratic this time.” This quote is nothing more than wishful thinking on the part of the left-wingers. NONE of the polls or any of the websites I visit (not all the websites I visit are conservative) would validate these empty claims.

“…Republicans are doing well across the country due to Democratic disengagement.” It’s not the Republicans that are doing well, it’s the conservatives that are doing well. I’m one Christian conservative that has disengaged from the Republican party and there are millions like me Mr. Kilgore.

Kilgore and others keep trying to link the Tea Party to the Republican Party. I believe that the left-wingers and RINOS want the Republican party to absorb the Tea Party movement so that they can CONTROL it and MANAGE it. Right now the Tea Party movement is uncontrolable and unmanagable and I’m loving every minute of it.

“So to sum it up, enthusiasm matters up to the point that it motivates someone to vote. Beyond that, a vote’s a vote, and you only get to vote once.” I agree with this statement completely except the last phrase about “you only get to vote once.” That’s not true. If ACORN registers you you get to vote as many as nine times. If you’re a student at universities in Michigan and Wisconsin you get to vote several times. Voter fraud by DEMONcrats and Republicrats is documented and dates back a loooooong way.

David
10:20 am CST
July 20, 2010

I just hope they keep thinking that way.

Radman
7:38 am CST
July 20, 2010

Good analysis Christian. It is HIGHLY unlikely that the author has ever attended a TEA Party, because, if he had attended (and actually listened to the speakers), he might have started to understand exactly WHY these Americans are “energized” by the destructive policies of this president and his statist sycophants — all the unconfirmed leftist czars and the socialist Democrat leadership in Congress.

Mr. Kilgore, keep “whistling past the graveyard” and maintaining your delusion that this movement is simply “a flash in the pan.” We know better; we like to be underestimated; and, our efforts WILL increase both conservative and independent voter turnout on November 2nd. And, this WILL result in a significant number of victories for those candidates who are opposing the status quo in D.C.

A_Dumas
8:04 pm CST
July 20, 2010

Excellent article by Victor Davis Hanson in the NRO yesterday stating a rather grim truth: simply “taking back our government” may not be good enough to overcome the Democratic political machine. These guys mean business, and they are now desperate. Nothing more dangerous than a cornered snake.

Attacking the oppostition is an low, underhanded Democrat tactic, and I’m afraid that’s all they will throw at us. Certainly can’t stand on their accomplishments. What Republicans don’t need is to get bogged down in the mudslinging. And we don’t need fancy rhetoric and empty promises. Any fool can give a flowery speech – Obama has shown us that much.

What the Republicans need is a definite message, stating exactly what will happen, and how we will fix this mess, step by step, when we regain control. Public confidence in Washington is pretty low right now, and it works against both parties. The GOP didn’t show their best side with Bush and, without a strong plan of action, voters might just remember what happened last time Republicans ran the show.