Texas Insider

By Karl Rove

Probably not, but their candidate recruitment so far has been stellar.

Democrats began the year as masters of the political universe, winning the White House and increasing their majorities in Congress. But the year is ending badly for them. Their top initiative, health care, is deeply unpopular. Congress’s approval rating is 26%, Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s is 28%, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s is an anemic 14%.

Political currents are running against the party of Barack Obama. Democrats now trail Republicans by four points in Gallup’s generic ballot poll. In 1994, the year the GOP took control of Congress, it wasn’t until March that Republicans took the lead in that poll—and then only by one point and for a short period of time.

With a good environment this election cycle, Republicans have recruited competitive candidates who could turn otherwise close contests into runaway victories, likely defeats into wins or at least close contests that, if things break right, tip to the GOP.

Today, there are only 40 Republicans in the Senate. In January 2011, there could be 44, 46 or more if the party runs strong campaigns in contests that haven’t jelled yet, or if some Democrats retire instead of risking defeat.

One feature giving Republicans an edge is that several senate seats are up for grabs because the politicians who were elected to fill them are now serving in the Obama administration. This includes seats formerly held by Mr. Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.

Rep. Mark Kirk is a strong candidate to pick up Mr. Obama’s old seat in Illinois. Rep. Mike Castle, a popular former governor, could pick up Mr. Biden’s former seat in Delaware. In New York, Democrats will try to defend Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s old seat by rallying behind Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, but she is vulnerable to a strong Republican challenge.

One of the most interesting Senate races this year will be in Colorado. Democrat Michael Bennet was appointed to fill the seat of Ken Salazar, who left to become Interior secretary. Mr. Bennet has never held elective office before and faces a tough primary challenge from a former state House speaker. Waiting for whoever emerges is the formidable Republican Jane Norton, a popular former lieutenant governor.

Other Senate seats are competitive because the Democrats who hold them are coming to be seen as out of step with their constituents.

In Connecticut, Sen. Chris Dodd trails former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons 35% to 48% in the latest Quinnipiac poll. In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln trails Republican State Sen. Gilbert Baker 41% to 47% in the latest polls, though Mr. Baker must first get past a multicandidate GOP primary. In California, Sen. Barbara Boxer is vulnerable. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina could be a strong candidate against her if she can win her nomination battle and use it to introduce herself to voters.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats are fighting themselves as Rep. Joe Sestak takes on Sen. Arlen Specter. Whoever wins that bruising primary will have to take on Republican Pat Toomey, a former congressman who is putting together a strong campaign.

One race that hasn’t jelled yet is North Dakota. Republicans want Gov. John Hoeven to run—he leads Democrat Sen. Byron Dorgan by 19 points in a matchup.

In Nevada, Mr. Reid has an $8 million war chest and 35 years in office. But he trails one-term GOP state Sen. Sue Lowden 41% to 51% and twice-defeated Republican candidate Danny Tarkanian 42% to 48%, even after a $1 million media blitz. If the primary fight doesn’t splinter conservatives, no amount of money will guarantee that Mr. Reid will remain in the Senate.
Democrats have so far failed to convince first-tier candidates to take on the 12 GOP incumbent senators up for re-election. An exception is Louisiana, but Democrat Charlie Melancon faces long odds against Republican David Vitter in a state that gave Mr. Obama only 40% of its vote.

Republicans have also recruited good candidates for their open seats. New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is competitive, as are Ohio’s Rob Portman and Missouri’s Roy Blunt. Republicans in Florida have to get through a primary fight, but either Gov. Charlie Crist or former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio will likely hold the seat. (I’ve donated to Messrs. Blunt and Rubio.) Only Kentucky’s open seat vacated by Jim Bunning causes the GOP squeamishness.

The GOP probably won’t win control of the Senate, but Republicans lead five incumbent Democratic senators in the polls, often by double digits, and trail in just one seat of their own (by a point). A lot can happen in a year, but if Democrats keep telling themselves that their greatest danger will come from not passing monstrosities like Mr. Reid’s health-care bill, Republicans will have a target-rich environment next year. We are once again in a GOP ascendancy, sparked by talented, energetic challengers.

Mr. Rove, the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush, is the author of the forthcoming book “Courage and Consequence” (Threshold Editions).